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Germany's Schauble sets out pre-election budget

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The German government has set out its financial plans three months prior to elections. Its 2018 budget and longer-term financial plan until 2021 project some 15-billion-euro surplus, enough for voter-friendly tax cuts.

 

The government wants to achieve a balanced federal budget in 2018 and an aggregate three-year surplus until 2021 of 14.8 billion euros, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble (main picture) told cabinet members on Wednesday.

 

This would mean filling a 1-billion-euro hole in next years budget if the government is to stick to its promise of not borrowing new money.

 

Schaubles plans will afford the next German government - expected to remain dominated by the ruling Christian democrats (CDU) - scope for tax cuts or higher spending.

 

By 2020, the level of public debt in Germany is expected to fall below the EU limit of 60 percent of GDP for the first time in over ten years, Schauble noted. This year that figure is estimated to be around 66 percent.

 

Odd timing?

 

The current session of the Bundestag ends this Friday, which means it is unlikely the 2018 budget and 2019-21 financial plan will be approved before then. And national elections will be held in Germany on September 24.

 

The draft documents are therefore likely to be used only by the incoming government after the elections and subsequent coalition talks as a foundation for their own plans

 

But their political impact at this stage is clear enough, with the CDU offering voters steady - but also generous - hands.

 

According to the plan, expenditures will rise by 2.6 percent to 337.5 billion euros next year, from 329.1 billion euros this year. By 2021, they are projected to rise to 356.8 billion euros.

 

Higher tax receipts have given Chancellor Angela Merkels government room for manoeuver in the budget arena. Schauble said in May that Germanys tax revenues for 2017 were predicted to be almost 8 billion euros higher than forecast last November. He also hiked its tax forecasts for 2017-2021 by a combined total of 54 billion euros.

 

But they also feed into debates about whether Berlin should - and can afford to - relax its fiscal stance to help rebalance the eurozone economy.

 

Tax cuts or spending rises

 

The increases are being driven bystrong economic growthand play into debates about whether Berlin should increase investments or cut taxes.

 

Martin Schulz, leader of the social democrats (SPD), has said increased investment has priority.

 

Many of Germanys EU partners also want the country to ease up on its cautious fiscal stance, hoping that doing so would allow more spending and hence help lift the eurozone economy.

 

Despite increasing expenditure on defense, humanitarian aid, security, education, transport and social issues, money can also be used for tax cuts.

 

Past budgetary surpluses have covered financing of costs associated with the refugeecrisis. A financial reserve of 18.7 billion euros is intended to ensure a balanced budget in the longer term. According to the draft, money will be taken from the "asylum reserve" to finance the present and future costs.

 

Schaubles draft also states that more money should be made available to fund research, microelectronics and broadband expansion, as well as infrastructure investments and defense expenditures.

 

jbh/sri (dpa, Dow Jones, Reuters)

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